599 Main St

Vermilion, OH 44089

$499,900F

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,542 sqft · Built 1989 · Condo · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,902/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$1,197
• HOA: −$537
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-2,853/mo
• Annual: $-34,237/yr
• Cap rate: 0.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.80%
• DSCR: 0.07
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (84.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (62.0% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (84.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $309k; list at $500k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.5% vs local median 5.0% in Vermilion — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 84% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?