205 Wilson

Magnolia, MS 39662

$105,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,073 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 238 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $970/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $967/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($967/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (7.6% below list).
• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#281 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• South Pike School District (rural): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #105 of 130 in MS (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.