51 Potter Pl

Pahrump, NV 89048

$139,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,082/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-123/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-123/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (22.6% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: J G Johnson Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #290 of 402 statewide, top 75%, 518 students, 100% FRL); Rosemary Clarke Middle School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #62 of 109 statewide, top 58%, 1,060 students, 100% FRL); Pahrump Valley High School (math 14% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 131 statewide, top 56%, 1,362 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1123 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $140k implies a 368% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?