325 First St

Sunland Park, NM 88063

$232,950F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,501/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-250/mo
• Annual: $-3,000/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $65,226

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (35.6% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#125 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Desert View Elementary (400 students, 100% FRL); Santa Teresa Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #20 of 27 statewide, top 77%, 625 students, 100% FRL); Santa Teresa High (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #73 of 110 statewide, top 66%, 1,198 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.