73 Fairlane Drive St

Vanceburg, KY 41179

$47,500B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,544 sqft · Built 1975 · Other · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $690/mo
• Annual: $8,277/yr
• Cap rate: 23.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.23%
• DSCR: 3.77
• 1% rule: 2.73%
• Cash to close: $13,300

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($328 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#180 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lewis County (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #94 of 165 in KY (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewis County Central Elementary School (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #427 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 455 students, 69% FRL); Lewis County Middle School (math 29% / reading 46%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 299 students, 78% FRL); Lewis County High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 621 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency.
• Lewis County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (51%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.