301 Jeff Gordon Dr

Harker Heights, TX 76548

$315,000F

None bd · None ba · 2,316 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,403/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$561
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-1,104/mo
• Annual: $-13,253/yr
• Cap rate: 2.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.03%
• DSCR: 0.33
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a townhouse listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (61.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (55.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (61.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#61 in TX, #2,271 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harker Heights El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 724 students, 85% FRL); Eastern Hills Middle (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 610 students, 72% FRL); Harker Heights H S (math 29% / reading 60%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,359 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 47% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 272 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $158k; list at $315k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.8% in Harker Heights — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.