8282 Murray Ave #99

Gilroy, CA 95020

$225,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 436 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $432/mo
• Annual: $5,182/yr
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• It's been on market 436 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#206 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living F.
• Gilroy Unified (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #477 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.8% in Gilroy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 436 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.