615 Jordan Rd

Sedona, AZ 86336

$2,200,000F

28 bd · 16.0 ba · 4,373 sqft · Built 1980 · MultiFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,537
• Tax + insurance: −$3,667
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,688
• Net cashflow: $-8,854/mo
• Annual: $-106,254/yr
• Cap rate: 1.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.25%
• DSCR: 0.23
• 1% rule: 0.37%
• Cash to close: $616,000

Investor read

• This is a 3×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $2.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9k ($-106k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-2k/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $919k (58.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $804k (63.5% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.00M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $804k (63.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#55 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities B+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Sedona-Oak Creek JUSD #9 (4467) (town): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #197 of 249 in AZ (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.80M; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $8,037/mo this rent would consume 141% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 239% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.