3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,232 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,735/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$117
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$364
Net cashflow
$257/mo
Annual
$3,080/yr
Cap rate
7.91%
Cash-on-cash
5.79%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$53,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (8.7% below list).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
Thomasville City (town): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #87 of 174 in GA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Jerger Elementary School (math 54% / reading 56%, grade C, #178 of 1,228 statewide, top 15%, 785 students, 25% FRL); Macintyre Park Middle School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 558 students, 92% FRL); Thomasville High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 797 students, 92% FRL).
Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $190k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Thomasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-DYT5EKCTJ9DKSZ
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29