9268 Richfield St

Commerce City, CO 80022

$428,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,244
• Tax + insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $-527/mo
• Annual: $-6,323/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $119,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $428k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-527 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (25.8% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $318k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#137 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Southlawn Elementary School (440 students, 39% FRL); Otho E Stuart Middle School (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #154 of 270 statewide, top 59%, 791 students, 42% FRL); Prairie View High School (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 1,821 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in Commerce City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.