448 23rd Pl

Manhattan Beach, CA 90266

$2,699,000D

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · Built 2000 · Condo · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,154
• Tax + insurance: −$3,146
• HOA: −$199
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,633
• Net cashflow: $-7,594/mo
• Annual: $-91,134/yr
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.06%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $755,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $2.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-91k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.39M (48.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.25M (53.5% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.25M (53.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#158 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manhattan Beach Unified (suburban): math 79% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #22 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Grand View Elementary (510 students, 2% FRL); Manhattan Beach Middle (1,197 students, 4% FRL); Mira Costa High (math 72% / reading 92%, grade A, #34 of 1,170 statewide, top 3%, 2,497 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.97M; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$155k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 0.3% in Manhattan Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $12,537/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($204k/yr) (locally 1009% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?