2040 Hemstreet Rd

Billington Heights, NY 14052

$18,800D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,544/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$99
• Tax + insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $1,090/mo
• Annual: $13,075/yr
• Cap rate: 75.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 248.39%
• DSCR: 12.05
• 1% rule: 8.21%
• Cash to close: $5,264

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $19k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $19k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $130 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $564 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#872 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Iroquois Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #178 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.