3636 Village Green Dr #304

Southgate, FL 34239

$199,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · Built 1967 · Condo · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $426/mo
• Annual: $5,108/yr
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.13%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#397 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilkinson Elementary School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 460 students, 77% FRL); Brookside Middle School (math 62% / reading 55%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 745 students, 66% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 42% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 292 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.