204 County Road 631 Rd

Jemison, AL 35085

$149,900F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-184/mo
• Annual: $-2,210/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (28.1% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#393 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chilton County (rural): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #94 of 129 in AL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clanton Elementary School (math 37% / reading 55%, grade D-, #164 of 627 statewide, top 26%, 1,028 students, 67% FRL); Clanton Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #188 of 257 statewide, top 74%, 478 students, 74% FRL); Chilton County High School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #195 of 305 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 54% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Chilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chilton County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.