18330 Wards Ferry Rd #109

East Sonora, CA 95370

$35,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1968 · Manufactured · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $901/mo
• Annual: $10,816/yr
• Cap rate: 37.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.36%
• DSCR: 5.91
• 1% rule: 4.02%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $901 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#501 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Curtis Creek Elementary (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #755 of 1,571 statewide, top 49%, 440 students, 54% FRL); Sonora High (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 919 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 304 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.