2220 Mission Hill Dr

Austin, TX 78741

$545,000D+

9 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,560 sqft · Built 1968 · MultiFamily · Pending · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,377/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax + insurance: −$1,277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,129
• Net cashflow: $113/mo
• Annual: $1,356/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.89%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $152,600

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $545k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $38/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $538k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($512k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $512k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.1%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,377/mo this rent would consume 97% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 4898% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?