305 Cedar Hill Rd

Adams, TN 37010

$299,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,236 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$236
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-172/mo
• Annual: $-2,067/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#297 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Robertson County (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #82 of 139 in TN (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jo Byrns Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #272 of 952 statewide, top 31%, 363 students, 0% FRL); Jo Byrns High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #250 of 332 statewide, top 76%, 559 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 983 units permitted in Robertson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Robertson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $300k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Adams — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.