10131 Hwy 44

Middleton, ID 83644

$574,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,470 sqft · Built 1994 · MultiFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$439
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$923
• Net cashflow: $19/mo
• Annual: $223/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $160,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($223/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $440k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($566k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $440k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#22 in ID, #3,173 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Middleton District (suburban): math 41% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #29 of 92 in ID (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middleton Heights Elementary (math 43% / reading 58%, grade D+, #144 of 357 statewide, top 41%, 534 students, 29% FRL); Middleton Academy (math 5% / reading 44%, grade F, #132 of 169 statewide, top 78%, 161 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.4% in Middleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,395/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 141% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.