183 Dogwood Dr

Wading River, NY 11792

$624,999C

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,743/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax + insurance: −$1,314
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,416
• Net cashflow: $736/mo
• Annual: $8,827/yr
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.04%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $175,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $736 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $625k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $616k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#779 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shoreham-Wading River Central School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #36 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Miller Avenue School (427 students, 0% FRL); Albert G Prodell Middle School (math 62% / reading 87%, grade A, #61 of 729 statewide, top 9%, 456 students, 0% FRL); Shoreham-Wading River High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 708 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $500k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.8% in Wading River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.