3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,333 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 55 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,538/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$103
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$323
Net cashflow
$849/mo
Annual
$10,191/yr
Cap rate
26.68%
Cash-on-cash
72.80%
DSCR
4.24
1% rule
3.08%
Cash to close
$14,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#830 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-E25PQK0CSQ1C27
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29