13614 Braeswest Dr

Houston, TX 77082

$165,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,302 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,848/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$919
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-367/mo
• Annual: $-4,399/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (38.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 301 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $165k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.