404 Woodcreek

Griffin, GA 30224

$299,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,833 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,563/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$528
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-909/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-909/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#529 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Futral Road Elementary School (math 25% / reading 24%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 590 students, 98% FRL); Rehoboth Road Middle School (math 17% / reading 29%, grade F, #321 of 470 statewide, top 69%, 615 students, 67% FRL); Spalding High School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 1,252 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $257k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 39% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Griffin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.