4 Davis St

Shirley, MA 01464

$2,030,000D+

13 bd · 10.0 ba · 7,256 sqft · Built 1885 · MultiFamily · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,003/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,646
• Tax + insurance: −$2,118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,781
• Net cashflow: $1,458/mo
• Annual: $17,500/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $568,400

Investor read

• This is a 10 × 1-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $2.03M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $146/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.80M (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.85M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.80M (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $61k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#145 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $2.03M implies a 1028% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?