3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,832 sqft ·
Built 1977
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 98 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,600/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,887
Tax + insurance
−$296
HOA
−$42
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$756
Net cashflow
$619/mo
Annual
$7,423/yr
Cap rate
8.36%
Cash-on-cash
7.37%
DSCR
1.33
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$100,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $360k).
It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $328k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#353 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Washington District Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 385 students, 100% FRL); Montross Middle (math 38% / reading 58%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 309 students, 101% FRL); Westmoreland High (math 32% / reading 82%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 486 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $245k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Montross — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-E31EPH7WZVAR58
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29