20350 Hole In One Dr #170

Redding, CA 96002

$109,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,715/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $602/mo
• Annual: $7,222/yr
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.66%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $602 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Pacheco Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #264 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prairie Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #410 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 319 students, 51% FRL); Pacheco Elementary (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #199 of 498 statewide, top 40%, 360 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $109k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.