939 Coachpoint Rd

Saluda, VA 23071

$124,900B

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,637/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $510/mo
• Annual: $6,114/yr
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.48%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#557 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $88k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.0% in Saluda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.