10703 Thunder Rd

Elkins, AR 72701

$226,500C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,188
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $213/mo
• Annual: $2,554/yr
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $63,420

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (3.6% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#186 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Elkins School District (rural): math 43% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #57 of 238 in AR (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 525 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in Elkins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,184/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 2582% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.