367 Calendar Brook Rd

Lyndon, VT 05851

$305,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,555 sqft · Built 1816 · SingleFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,997/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-349/mo
• Annual: $-4,184/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (34.5% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Watch-outs: built in 1816 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $305k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1816 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.