11011 Hamburg Rd

Whitmore Lake, MI 48189

$250,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,886 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,135/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $3/mo
• Annual: $41/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($41/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#279 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pinckney Community Schools (suburban): math 34% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #135 of 540 in MI (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Country Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 276 students, 30% FRL); Pathfinder School (math 33% / reading 60%, grade D+, #150 of 493 statewide, top 31%, 478 students, 30% FRL); Pinckney Community High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #187 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 685 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Whitmore Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.