109 Hillcrest Rd

Lumpkin, GA 31815

$129,900C

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,808 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $216/mo
• Annual: $2,592/yr
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#587 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, schools F, crime F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 35% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #141 of 187 in GA (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stewart County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $130k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.