3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,372 sqft ·
Built —
· Manufactured
· Active
· 370 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,706/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$655
Tax + insurance
−$208
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$358
Net cashflow
$484/mo
Annual
$5,812/yr
Cap rate
10.94%
Cash-on-cash
16.61%
DSCR
1.74
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$34,999
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
Manor ISD (rural): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #729 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Shadowglen El (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 654 students, 61% FRL); Manor H S (math 9% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,431 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 2,280 students, 66% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 180 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Kitchen cabinets
— Worn and dated appearance
Major: Bathroom fixtures
— Outdated and small shower area
Major: Flooring
— Worn hardwood floors
Major: Paint
— Chipped and uneven paint
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· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29