2598 S Oceana Dr

Shelby, MI 49455

$82,500B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,210/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $386/mo
• Annual: $4,633/yr
• Cap rate: 11.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.06%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $23,100

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shelby Public Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #433 of 540 in MI (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 147 units permitted in Oceana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oceana County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.4% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior walls — Exposed brick and cinderblock
• Major: Interior walls — Exposed framing, no drywall
• Major: Windows — Exposed framing, no windows
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC or mechanicals visible
• Major: Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation, no landscaping