3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,097 sqft ·
Built 2001
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 55 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,673/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$328
HOA
−$23
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$351
Net cashflow
$184/mo
Annual
$2,207/yr
Cap rate
7.76%
Cash-on-cash
5.25%
DSCR
1.23
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Judson H S (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,666 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1152 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.4% in Converse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-E5YYA816RT32GP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29