3904 Bandera Dr

DeCordova, TX 76049

$239,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,628 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,981/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$322
• HOA: −$315
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-325/mo
• Annual: $-3,898/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.82%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#120 in TX, #3,802 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Acton El (math 52% / reading 46%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 814 students, 48% FRL); Acton Middle (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 981 students, 43% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $72k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.8% in DeCordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?