2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,498 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 651 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,300/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$375
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$483
Net cashflow
$262/mo
Annual
$3,146/yr
Cap rate
7.69%
Cash-on-cash
4.99%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
It's been on market 651 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Chamberlain High School (math 20% / reading 23%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,262 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-27 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 368 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At $2,300/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 2581% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 651 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-E7KJ1P7DNXBWMS
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29