2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,050 sqft ·
Built 1961
· Condo
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,119/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,990
Tax + insurance
−$632
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$655
Net cashflow
$-159/mo
Annual
$-1,902/yr
Cap rate
5.79%
Cash-on-cash
-1.79%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$106,260
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $380k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (6.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (17.8% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $312k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $275k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,119/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 5586% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-E7MP4F45ED83XP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29