132 Scott St

Front Royal, VA 22630

$300,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1980 · Townhouse · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-755/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-755/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (25.8% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $223k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#162 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ressie Jeffries Elementary (math 56% / reading 64%, grade B-, #533 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 639 students, 66% FRL); Skyline High (math 36% / reading 77%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 893 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 289 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask is 150% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $111k; list at $300k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Front Royal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.