40 Hillside Ave

Warren, MA 01083

$269,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Built 1896 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,204/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-92/mo
• Annual: $-1,109/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#243 in MA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Quaboag Regional (rural): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #196 of 302 in MA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quaboag Regional Middle Innovation School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #148 of 305 statewide, top 49%, 203 students, 0% FRL); Quaboag Regional High (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #110 of 343 statewide, top 34%, 354 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1896 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $269k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1896 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.