3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,546 sqft ·
Built 1986
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 78 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,300/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$183
Tax + insurance
−$58
HOA
−$658
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$273
Net cashflow
$128/mo
Annual
$1,535/yr
Cap rate
10.69%
Cash-on-cash
15.70%
DSCR
1.70
1% rule
3.73%
Cash to close
$9,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#332 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A-, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Clio Area School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #269 of 540 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.
Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.7% in Clio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— The independent aerial image shows visible wear and tear on the roof.
Moderate: exterior siding
— The independent image shows the siding in need of attention, with some discoloration and wear visible.
CashFlowRE · CFR-E8SFDFCNGZFD8B
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29