520 Michigan Ave

Alpena, MI 49707

$100,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 904 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $803/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $46/mo
• Annual: $556/yr
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($556/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#359 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Alpena Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #345 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ella M White Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #744 of 1,397 statewide, top 57%, 472 students, 74% FRL); Thunder Bay Junior High School (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #363 of 493 statewide, top 75%, 844 students, 60% FRL); Alpena High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 1,101 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Alpena County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alpena County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $100k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Alpena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.