511 Logan St

Elmira, NY 14901

$126,500C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,563 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,324/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$663
• Tax + insurance: −$411
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-338/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $35,420

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-338/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (3.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $126k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($875 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $126k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?