16083 Naples St

Spring Hill, FL 34604

$99,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,504/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $541/mo
• Annual: $6,493/yr
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.21%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moton Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 679 students, 79% FRL); D. S. Parrott Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 835 students, 67% FRL); Nature Coast Technical High (math 52% / reading 51%, grade D+, #167 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,298 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $100k implies a 651% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.