3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,653 sqft ·
Built 1994
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,100/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,255
Tax + insurance
−$334
HOA
−$15
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$651
Net cashflow
$-154/mo
Annual
$-1,853/yr
Cap rate
6.05%
Cash-on-cash
-0.88%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$120,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $403k (6.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (27.9% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $310k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#548 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Vineland Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 579 students, 45% FRL); L. A. Ainger Middle School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 720 students, 40% FRL); Lemon Bay High School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,360 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 54% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 869 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Rotonda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,100/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 91% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-E94NFRF0R3929G
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29