280 Misty Rdg

Lakemoor, IL 60051

$130,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $289/mo
• Annual: $3,469/yr
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.53%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#317 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Grant Chsd 124 (suburban): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #296 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grant Community High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #247 of 693 statewide, top 36%, 1,837 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $130k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.9% in Lakemoor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.