700 Cr 2316

Rocky Mound, TX 75686

$147,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,777/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $479/mo
• Annual: $5,751/yr
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.97%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $41,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#1,576 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pittsburg ISD (town): math 54% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #216 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Camp County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camp County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 1.1% in Rocky Mound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.