1306 Cole Dr

Trenton, TX 75490

$294,145D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,543
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-174/mo
• Annual: $-2,084/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $82,361

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $294k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,108 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Trenton ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #483 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trenton El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 299 students, 46% FRL); Trenton Middle (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 192 students, 38% FRL); Trenton H S (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 208 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.7% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.