180 Lynnwood Dr

Murray, KY 42071

$187,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · Built 2023 · Other · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,540/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-719/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $52,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $187k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-719/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#380 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Calloway County (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #19 of 165 in KY (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Calloway Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 83% FRL); Calloway County Middle School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D, #35 of 217 statewide, top 16%, 674 students, 57% FRL); Calloway County High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #18 of 254 statewide, top 7%, 856 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 46% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Murray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.