20102 Great Oak Cir S #174

Mount Clemens, MI 48036

$67,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1968 · Condo · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$621
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-85/mo
• Annual: $-1,025/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $18,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $67k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (18.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#120 in MI, #2,918 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Chippewa Valley Schools (suburban): math 39% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #133 of 540 in MI (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Mount Clemens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?