128 Saint Thomas Ln

Cahokia Heights, IL 62206

$46,800B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,372/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$245
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $737/mo
• Annual: $8,848/yr
• Cap rate: 25.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.52%
• DSCR: 4.00
• 1% rule: 2.93%
• Cash to close: $13,104

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $47k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $45k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $324 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cahokia High School (math 8% / reading 2%, grade F, #614 of 693 statewide, top 95%, 845 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 85% district-wide (85 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.2% vs local median 13.6% in Cahokia Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,372/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 729% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.