Spire (Sawyier) Plan

Lexington-Fayette, KY 40324

$66,995C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 320 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $117/mo
• Annual: $1,405/yr
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.49%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 2.04%
• Cash to close: $18,759

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $67k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Scott County (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 546 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.